• No candidates are named yet. Each party’s line is a placeholder until nominations close.
• The election is on the same 87 districts as 2019 and 2023, the map in force. Bill 32, before the Legislature, would set 91. If a new map becomes law before the election, this one is out of date.
• Each district starts from Northern Vibe’s own projected vote there, at that district’s 2023 turnout.
• Where that would elect a different party than Northern Vibe’s seat projection, just enough votes are moved to the projected winner to put it one point ahead. A district or two are close races by construction, not by measurement.
• Northern Vibe’s average across simulations is not a whole number, so it is rounded to whole seats, and each seat goes to the district where Northern Vibe gives that party its best chance.
• The Progressive Tory Party is the Alberta Party, under the name it took in December 2025.
• The polling average’s “Others” line goes to other parties, the Republican Party among them, as Northern Vibe counts it.
• Turnout is held at each district’s 2023 level. The adjustment moves votes between parties but never changes how many were cast.
• The ranked counts (AV and STV) use an estimated table of second preferences, not a measured one. The Progressive Tories’ row, the one that moves the most votes, follows where their supporters came from in three 2026 polls: mostly the UCP, then the NDP.

Read the full methodology