• No candidates are named yet. Each party’s line is a placeholder until nominations close.
• The election is on the same 49 districts as 2024, the map drawn in 2023.
• Each district starts from Northern Vibe’s own projected vote there, at that district’s 2024 turnout.
• Where that would elect a different party than Northern Vibe’s seat projection, just enough votes are moved to the projected winner to put it one point ahead. A district or two are close races by construction, not by measurement.
• Northern Vibe’s average across simulations is not a whole number, so it is rounded to whole seats, and each seat goes to the district where Northern Vibe gives that party its best chance. In a district or two that is a party Northern Vibe rates as less likely than another.
• The NDP has a line in every district, as Northern Vibe projects it everywhere, although it ran in fewer than half of them in 2024. The polling average’s “Others” line covers independents and the smaller parties, the Libertarians among them, as Northern Vibe counts it.
• Turnout is held at each district’s 2024 level. The adjustment moves votes between parties but never changes how many were cast.
• The ranked counts (AV and STV) use an estimated table of second preferences, not a measured one: no New Brunswick poll asks for a second choice, and how the vote moved between 2018 and 2020 was too weak a signal to adopt.

Read the full methodology