A simulation, not a VoteLab prediction. No election is called and no candidates are nominated yet, so each line on the ballot is a party. The vote shares and first-past-the-post seat totals are from The Northern Vibe Project’s Nova Scotia projection as of October 11, 2026: its polling average for the vote, and its projected seat count for FPTP. VoteLab counts those same votes under each of the other voting systems.
What this simulation assumes
- No candidates are named yet, and no date is set. Each party’s line is a placeholder until nominations close.
- The election is on the 2026 map of 56 districts. Chéticamp-Margarees-Pleasant Bay is new, carved out of Inverness; every other district is as it was in 2024.
- Each district starts from Northern Vibe’s own projected vote there, at that district’s 2024 turnout. For Inverness and Chéticamp-Margarees-Pleasant Bay, the 2024 count is split by polling station, as Northern Vibe splits it.
- Where that would elect a different party than Northern Vibe’s seat projection, just enough votes are moved to the projected winner to put it one point ahead. A district or two are close races by construction, not by measurement.
- Northern Vibe’s average across simulations is not a whole number, so it is rounded to whole seats, and each seat goes to the district where Northern Vibe gives that party its best chance. In a district or two that is a party Northern Vibe rates as less likely than another.
- Independents stand where Northern Vibe projects them, district by district. The rest of the polling average’s “Others” line goes to other parties.
- Turnout is held at each district’s 2024 level. The adjustment moves votes between parties but never changes how many were cast.
- Chéticamp-Margarees-Pleasant Bay held a by-election in 2026. As in Northern Vibe’s model, its turnout is not used: a by-election’s is not a general election’s.
- The ranked counts (AV and STV) use an estimated table of second preferences, not a measured one: no Nova Scotia poll asks for a second choice.
What if people vote differently?
How this election might play out overall
Explore how different ways of voting might affect the results.
How we vote now:
FPTP
A different way:How we vote now:FPTP
A different way:
seats wonseats beyond a party’s share of the voteseats its share of the vote earned but it didn’t winvote sharemajorityhalf the votes
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| seats won | vote share | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| NSPC | 30(54%) | 35% | |
| NSNDP | 17(30%) | 33% | |
| NSLIB | 8(14%) | 26% | |
| OTH | 0(0%) | 3% | |
| NSGRN | 0(0%) | 1% | |
| IND | 1(2%) | 1% |
Seat vs Vote Shareseats wonvote share
| seats won | vote share | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| NSPC | 21(38%) | 35% | |
| NSNDP | 20(36%) | 33% | |
| NSLIB | 15(27%) | 26% | |
| OTH | 0(0%) | 3% | |
| NSGRN | 0(0%) | 1% | |
| IND | 0(0%) | 1% |
Seat vs Vote Shareseats wonvote share
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