• No candidates are named yet. Each party’s line is a placeholder until nominations close.
• The election is on the same 40 districts as 2025 and 2021. A boundaries commission is drawing a new map in 2026; if it is in force before the election, this baseline is rebuilt on it.
• Each district starts from Northern Vibe’s own projected vote there, at that district’s 2025 turnout.
• Where that would elect a different party than Northern Vibe’s seat projection, just enough votes are moved to the projected winner to put it one point ahead. A district or two are close races by construction, not by measurement.
• Northern Vibe’s average across simulations is not a whole number, so it is rounded to whole seats, and each seat goes to the district where Northern Vibe gives that party its best chance. In a district or two that is a party Northern Vibe rates as less likely than another.
• Independents stand where Northern Vibe projects them: three sitting members, in Humber – Bay of Islands, Mount Pearl – Southlands and Lake Melville. Their vote is more than the polls’ “Others” line, so, as Northern Vibe does, each party’s share is scaled down a little to make room for them, keeping the parties’ shares in the same proportion to one another.
• Turnout is held at each district’s 2025 level. The adjustment moves votes between parties but never changes how many were cast.
• The ranked counts (AV and STV) use an estimated table of second preferences, not a measured one: no Newfoundland and Labrador poll asks for a second choice, and how the vote moved between 2021 and 2025 was too weak a signal to adopt.

Read the full methodology