A simulation, not a VoteLab prediction. No election is called and no candidates are nominated yet, so each line on the ballot is a party. The vote shares and first-past-the-post seat totals are from The Northern Vibe Project’s Ontario projection as of November 7, 2026: its polling average for the vote, and its projected seat count for FPTP. VoteLab counts those same votes under each of the other voting systems.
What this simulation assumes
- No candidates are named yet, and no date is set. Each party’s line is a placeholder until nominations close.
- The election is on the same 124 districts as 2022 and 2025. Ontario kept its map when the federal one changed in 2023.
- Each district starts from Northern Vibe’s own projected vote there, at that district’s 2025 turnout.
- Where that would elect a different party than Northern Vibe’s seat projection, just enough votes are moved to the projected winner to put it one point ahead. A district or two are close races by construction, not by measurement.
- Northern Vibe’s average across simulations is not a whole number, so it is rounded to whole seats, and each seat goes to the district where Northern Vibe gives that party its best chance. In a district or two that is a party Northern Vibe rates as less likely than another.
- Independents stand where Northern Vibe projects them, district by district. The rest of the polling average’s “Others” line goes to other parties, New Blue among them, as Northern Vibe counts it.
- Turnout is held at each district’s 2025 level. The adjustment moves votes between parties but never changes how many were cast.
- The ranked counts (AV and STV) use an estimated table of second preferences, not a measured one: no Ontario poll asks for a second choice.
Overall resultsHow this election might play out overall
Explore how different ways of voting might affect the results.
Do seats match votes?
How we vote now:
FPTP
A different way:How we vote now:FPTP
A different way:
- ONPC
- ONLIB
- ONNDP
- ONGRN
- OTH
- IND
- seats won
- seats beyond a party’s share of the vote
- seats its share of the vote earned but it didn’t win
- vote share
seats wonseats beyond a party’s share of the voteseats its share of the vote earned but it didn’t winvote sharemajorityhalf the votes
ONPC56% seats · 40% votes69
ONLIB19% seats · 31% votes24
ONNDP23% seats · 21% votes28
ONGRN2% seats · 4% votes2
OTH0% seats · 3% votes0
IND1% seats · 1% votes1
| seats won | vote share | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ONPC | 69(56%) | 40% | |
| ONLIB | 24(19%) | 31% | |
| ONNDP | 28(23%) | 21% | |
| ONGRN | 2(2%) | 4% | |
| OTH | 0(0%) | 3% | |
| IND | 1(1%) | 1% |
Seat vs Vote Shareseats wonvote share
ONPC44% seats · 40% votes54
ONLIB36% seats · 31% votes45
ONNDP19% seats · 21% votes24
ONGRN1% seats · 4% votes1
OTH0% seats · 3% votes0
IND0% seats · 1% votes0
| seats won | vote share | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ONPC | 54(44%) | 40% | |
| ONLIB | 45(36%) | 31% | |
| ONNDP | 24(19%) | 21% | |
| ONGRN | 1(1%) | 4% | |
| OTH | 0(0%) | 3% | |
| IND | 0(0%) | 1% |
Seat vs Vote Shareseats wonvote share
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