Prince Edward Island 2027 provincial election

• No candidates are named yet. Each party’s line is a placeholder until nominations close.
• Each district starts from Northern Vibe’s own projected vote there, at that district’s 2023 turnout, on the same 27 districts. Added up, those figures land within a fraction of a point of Northern Vibe’s island-wide average, which the baseline is then set to exactly.
• Where that would elect a different party than Northern Vibe’s seat projection, just enough votes are moved to the projected winner to put it one point ahead. A district or two are close races by construction, not by measurement.
• Northern Vibe’s average across simulations is not a whole number, so it is rounded to whole seats, and each seat goes to the district where Northern Vibe gives that party its best chance. In a district or two that is a party Northern Vibe rates as less likely than another.
• The polling average has one “Others” line. It is split between independents and other parties in the proportion Northern Vibe’s own projection gives them.
• Turnout is held at each district’s 2023 level. The adjustment moves votes between parties but never changes how many were cast.
• VoteLab’s own average of published PEI polls is kept as a cross-check. It no longer sets the baseline.
• The ranked counts (AV and STV) use an estimated table of second preferences, not a measured one: no PEI poll asks for a second choice.

Read the full methodology