A simulation, not a prediction. The candidates are the real 2026 slate as it stood when we last updated it, but the vote counts are simulated, calibrated to polling as of October 5, 2026 rather than measured. Methodology lists the exact polls behind that and what it assumes.
Overall resultsHow this election might play out overall
Explore how different ways of voting might affect the results.
Do seats match votes?
How we vote now:
FPTP
A different way:How we vote now:FPTP
A different way:
- PQ
- PLQ
- PCQ
- CAQ
- QS
- OTH
- seats won
- seats beyond a party’s share of the vote
- seats its share of the vote earned but it didn’t win
- vote share
seats wonseats beyond a party’s share of the voteseats its share of the vote earned but it didn’t winvote sharemajorityhalf the votes
PQ49% seats · 28% votes62
PLQ31% seats · 24% votes40
PCQ14% seats · 20% votes18
CAQ0% seats · 16% votes0
QS6% seats · 11% votes7
OTH0% seats · 1% votes0
| seats won | vote share | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 62(49%) | 28% | |
| PLQ | 40(31%) | 24% | |
| PCQ | 18(14%) | 20% | |
| CAQ | 0(0%) | 16% | |
| QS | 7(6%) | 11% | |
| OTH | 0(0%) | 1% |
Seat vs Vote Shareseats wonvote share
PQ37% seats · 28% votes48
PLQ25% seats · 24% votes32
PCQ19% seats · 20% votes25
CAQ12% seats · 16% votes16
QS6% seats · 11% votes8
OTH0% seats · 1% votes0
| seats won | vote share | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 48(37%) | 28% | |
| PLQ | 32(25%) | 24% | |
| PCQ | 25(19%) | 20% | |
| CAQ | 16(12%) | 16% | |
| QS | 8(6%) | 11% | |
| OTH | 0(0%) | 1% |
Seat vs Vote Shareseats wonvote share
Step 1 of 3