A simulation, not a prediction. The candidates are the real 2026 slate as it stood when we last updated it, but the vote counts are simulated, calibrated to polling as of September 16, 2026 rather than measured. Methodology lists the exact polls behind that and what it assumes.
How this election might play out overall
Explore how different ways of voting might affect the results.
How we vote now:
FPTP
A different way:How we vote now:FPTP
A different way:
seats wonseats beyond a party’s share of the voteseats its share of the vote earned but it didn’t winvote sharemajorityhalf the votes
What to notice
FPTP — First-Past-The-Post. One vote, one winner per riding. Today's Canadian baseline.
The PQ leads with 43% of the seats on 27% of the vote, short of a majority.
MMP — Mixed-Member Proportional. A local representative plus a regional party top-up for proportionality.
Seat shares sit much closer to vote shares, and no party wins a majority of the seats.
| seats won | vote share | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 54(43%) | 27% | |
| CAQ | 21(17%) | 23% | |
| PLQ | 33(26%) | 22% | |
| PCQ | 12(9%) | 16% | |
| QS | 7(6%) | 11% | |
| OTH | 0(0%) | 1% |
seats wonvote share
| seats won | vote share | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 40(31%) | 27% | |
| CAQ | 31(24%) | 23% | |
| PLQ | 32(25%) | 22% | |
| PCQ | 19(15%) | 16% | |
| QS | 7(5%) | 11% | |
| OTH | 0(0%) | 1% |
seats wonvote share
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