• No candidates are named yet. Each party’s line is a placeholder until nominations close.
• The election is on the same 61 districts as 2024, the map The Representation Act, 2022 drew.
• Each district starts from Northern Vibe’s own projected vote there, at that district’s 2024 turnout.
• Where that would elect a different party than Northern Vibe’s seat projection, just enough votes are moved to the projected winner to put it one point ahead. A district or two are close races by construction, not by measurement.
• Northern Vibe’s average across simulations is not a whole number, so it is rounded to whole seats, and each seat goes to the district where Northern Vibe gives that party its best chance. In a district or two that is a party Northern Vibe rates as less likely than another.
• Independents stand where Northern Vibe projects them, district by district. The rest of the polling average’s “Others” line goes to other parties, the Progressive Conservatives and the Buffalo Party among them, as Northern Vibe counts it.
• Turnout is held at each district’s 2024 level. The adjustment moves votes between parties but never changes how many were cast.
• The ranked counts (AV and STV) use an estimated table of second preferences, not a measured one: no Saskatchewan poll asks for a second choice. Saskatchewan United’s row follows where its supporters came from in two 2024 polls: mostly the Saskatchewan Party.

Read the full methodology