A simulation, not a VoteLab prediction. The vote shares and first-past-the-post seat totals are from The Northern Vibe Project’s British Columbia projection as of September 26, 2026: its polling average for the vote, and its projected seat count for FPTP. VoteLab counts those same votes under each of the other voting systems.
What this simulation assumes
- No candidates are named. Nominations have not closed, and carrying 2024 names forward would put people on a ballot they have not stood for.
- Each district's split between the parties starts from how it actually voted in 2024, on the same 93-district map, scaled to Northern Vibe's province-wide polling average.
- OneBC and CentreBC did not exist in 2024, so their vote is carved out of each district's 2024 Conservative vote, and concentrated where their own MLAs sit.
- Where the scaled result would elect a different party than Northern Vibe's seat projection, just enough votes are moved to the projected winner to put it one point ahead. A handful of districts are close races by construction, not by measurement.
- Northern Vibe's average across simulations is not a whole number, so it is rounded to whole seats, and each seat goes to the district where Northern Vibe gives that party its best chance. In a few districts that is a party Northern Vibe rates as less likely than another.
- The polling average has one "Others" line. It is split between Independents and other parties in their 2024 proportion.
- Turnout is held at each district's 2024 level. The adjustment moves votes between parties but never changes how many were cast.
- The ranked counts (AV and STV) use an estimated table of second preferences, not a measured one.
What if people vote differently?
How this election might play out overall
Explore how different ways of voting might affect the results.
How we vote now:
FPTP
A different way:How we vote now:FPTP
A different way:
seats wonseats beyond a party’s share of the voteseats its share of the vote earned but it didn’t winvote sharemajorityhalf the votes
| seats won | vote share | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| BCNDP | 46(49%) | 40% | |
| BCCON | 44(47%) | 39% | |
| BCGRN | 2(2%) | 11% | |
| BCONE | 0(0%) | 3% | |
| BCCTR | 0(0%) | 3% | |
| IND | 1(1%) | 3% |
seats wonvote share
| seats won | vote share | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| BCNDP | 45(48%) | 40% | |
| BCCON | 41(44%) | 39% | |
| BCGRN | 7(8%) | 11% | |
| BCONE | 0(0%) | 3% | |
| BCCTR | 0(0%) | 3% | |
| IND | 0(0%) | 3% |
seats wonvote share
Step 1 of 3