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See how this election might turn out in the region where you live under different ways of voting.
See how this election might turn out in the region where you live under different ways of voting. We look not just at your current riding, but at the seats nearby as well, typically all the seats in a city or geographic region of a province. The figures below show, for each system, what electoral district your current riding sits in, as well as the results in other districts in the same region.
What this simulation assumes
- No candidates are named yet. Each party’s line is a placeholder until nominations close.
- The election is on the same 57 districts as 2019 and 2023: the boundaries commission does not review the map again until 2028.
- Each district starts from Northern Vibe’s own projected vote there, at that district’s 2023 turnout.
- Where that would elect a different party than Northern Vibe’s seat projection, just enough votes are moved to the projected winner to put it one point ahead. A district or two are close races by construction, not by measurement.
- Northern Vibe’s average across simulations is not a whole number, so it is rounded to whole seats, and each seat goes to the district where Northern Vibe gives that party its best chance. In a district or two that is a party Northern Vibe rates as less likely than another.
- Independents stand where Northern Vibe projects them, district by district. The rest of the polling average’s “Others” line goes to other parties, Keystone among them, as Northern Vibe counts it.
- Turnout is held at each district’s 2023 level. The adjustment moves votes between parties but never changes how many were cast.
- The ranked counts (AV and STV) use an estimated table of second preferences, not a measured one: no Manitoba poll asks for a second choice. One row, the Greens’, is fitted from how the vote moved between 2019 and 2023.
Pick a riding above to see how this election turns out under each voting system.